Ten deterministic stages across four layers. Every headline flows through the same path, every score is reproducible, every attestation is signed and posted to Arc.
Live10 stages4 layersEnd-to-end < 10s typical
P1
Ingestion Layer
Raw wire to structured event
01~5s
Ingest
Pull live headlines across geopolitics, rare earth, macro and crypto.
NewsAPI · 4 buckets
02<50ms
Normalize
Reshape vendor payloads into one canonical event schema.
Zod schema
03<10ms
Dedupe
Rolling djb2 hash plus URL fingerprint to suppress duplicates.
djb2 + URL
P2
Intelligence Layer
LLM classification and risk scoring
04<5ms
Prefilter
Drop anything outside the four tracked narrative classes.
Heuristic gate
05~1.2s
Classify
Route survivors to llama-3.3-70b for category and stage tagging.
Groq · 70B
06<200ms
Score
Assign severity, confidence and contribution to the Global Risk Index.
0-100 scale
P3
Forecast Layer
Falsifiable calls with calibration
07~800ms
Predict
Write a falsifiable forecast with a 48h resolution deadline.
Deadline bound
08rolling
Reflect
Backtest prior calls onchain and adjust analyst calibration.
Track record
P4
Settlement Layer
Onchain attestation and market settlement
09~3s
Attest
SHA-256 the event payload, sign the digest, post the attestation to Arc.
Arc · SHA-256
10at T+48h
Resolve
Main agent referees the analyst duel and settles the event contract.