40. Regional Validation

Regional cohorts are validation tools, not separate scoring architectures.

A global risk methodology should be stress-tested across regions with different conflict, sanctions, energy, trade, macro and data-availability patterns.

Potential validation dimensions include:

• conflict and escalation sensitivity
• sanctions and policy shocks
• energy and trade exposure
• displacement and humanitarian stress
• macro deterioration
• evidence availability and source independence
• false confidence under sparse coverage

The Middle East can be one useful stress cohort, but Geomacro should not hard-code a Middle-East-specific architecture merely to pass that cohort.

Regional validation results must be presented as validation evidence only when the underlying test has actually been run and preserved.