34. Prediction Markets

Status: TECHNICAL PROOF · ARC TESTNET ONLY

Prediction markets are a secondary application and feedback layer built during Geomacro's earlier product phase.

Permanent deployment boundary

Prediction markets are permanently Testnet-only.

They are not part of Geomacro's production/mainnet commercialization path and are not planned for real-money mainnet deployment. A future Arc mainnet configuration must not cause this application, its staking/claim flows, market-automation jobs, dispute flow or prediction-market contracts to migrate automatically.

Official prediction-market automation must pass the Arc Testnet target preflight before privileged keys or market state-changing scripts are used. The expected Arc Testnet chain ID is 5042002.

They demonstrate capabilities such as:

event-to-market workflows
test-USDC participation
smart-contract settlement
dispute/resolution mechanics
onchain probability experimentation

They are not the primary commercial identity of Geomacro.

text

Geomacro intelligence
      ├─ Separate Risk Indices
      ├─ Ask Geomacro
      ├─ Risk API / Risk Gate
      └─ Prediction market application — permanent Testnet technical proof

The public Risk Indices preserve the versioned GRI v1.2 parent methodology and verified proof lineage. Prediction-market probabilities are a different technical-proof signal and must not be presented as Geomacro risk-index values.

Current market flows are Testnet only and must not be represented as real-money, mainnet or production-market deployment.